What does Moores Law apply to?
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Speaking of Facebook, the ability for the platform to scale to handle unbelievably massive amounts of data owes a debt to Moore’s Law. With 800 million people around the world uploading text, images, videos for free, the amount of server space required becomes mind-boggling. Show But how does the technology infrastructure keep pace with a Facebook’s growth? Or to expand out, why does the digital space change so fast? In 1965, the co-founder of Intel, Gordon Moore wrote a paper that stated the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year from the invention of the integrated circuit. Later Moore revised his law to say that the number of transistors on a chip would double every two years, which has held pretty much true. (Although some argue it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy for the semiconductor industry.) [Source] This somewhat obscure law has governed much of technology’s growth in the 20th and 21st centuries and ruled Silicon Valley. It means computers get smaller, faster, and yet hold more data. Consumers get two remarkable benefits: their technology gets faster and it costs less money. This short video from Scientific American does a nice job: What Moore’s Law Means Moore’s Law in effect means that power doubles and costs are cut in half every two years. It’s why we can fit thousands of songs in our pocket. Or have real-time navigation in our cars through GPS. Or stream videos on our televisions and laptops.
Once you start to grasp the implications of Moore’s Law you quickly see that the coming years will continue to bring unprecedented change. Technology gets better and cheaper over time – an unnatural benefit that rarely occurs in traditional economic models. Moore’s Law builds the foundations for incredible innovation and disruption. When technology can grow at such a rate, the applications of such technology are no longer limited by infrastructure but rather by creativity. Google gives away much of its offerings for free in part by being able to exploit Moore’s Law. The company can continually store more data for cheaper and deliver it faster to its users. As a user, we have free email, powerful search engine, Google Earth, and real-time maps on our phone. All this has taken just a few years not decades to develop. Fallout from Moore’s LawSuch incredible change and innovation does not come without casualties though. Witness the media industry completely caught off guard with the rapid shift to online consumption. Craig’s List allows anyone to sell products or services online for free, completely replacing classified ads and crippling the newspaper industry almost overnight. Readers like you help support MUO. When you make a purchase using links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Read More.Moore's Law has been predicting the exponential growth of computing power for over 50 years. Since the invention of integrated circuits in the 1950s until today, Moore's Law has pushed technological development through many challenges. While exponential growth has largely continued, integrated circuits are rapidly approaching the processing power of the human brain. We'll discuss the state of things today and whether Moore's Law still applies. What Is Moore's Law?In 1965, Gordon E. Moore, co-founder of Intel, reported that the number of transistors per square inch on an integrated circuit had doubled approximately every year since its invention in 1958. At the time, Moore predicted this trend would continue for at least ten more years. In his 1965 paper, Cramming More Components Onto Integrated Circuits, Moore wrote:
This projection wasn't quite right. By 1975, chips only held 10,000 transistors each, so Moore updated his prediction to a doubling approximately every two years and later to every 18 months. Moore's (updated) Law held true for almost 50 years.
Around the 2010s, growth of transistor density started slowing down. Today, over 50 billion transistors find space on a single chip, and we've seen a doubling approximately every two and a half years. Strictly speaking, Moore's Law doesn't apply anymore. But while its exponential growth has decelerated, we'll continue to see an increase in transistor density for a few more years. What's more, innovation will continue beyond shrinking physical components. Why Did Moore's Law Persist?When Moore's Law became widely accepted, the industry began establishing road maps and setting goals based on Moore's projection. As the production of integrated circuits became more complex and involved the interplay of various specialized companies, a plan was needed to help all parties set individual targets and advance at an equal pace. From 1998 until 2017, the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRs)—a yearly report produced by a group of semiconductor industry experts—provided the basis for such a plan. The ITRS documented the research in all areas relevant to semiconductors and provided timelines for up to 15 years into the future. Today, the International Roadmap for Devices and Systems (IRDS) has taken on this task. Ultimately, Moore's Law has been serving as a vision for an entire industry and has become something like a perpetual self-fulfilling prophecy. But it's bound to hit another major roadblock in the mid-2020s. More Moore Meets More Than MooreAs nanoscale transistor density is hitting molecular limits, it's becoming impossible to cool circuits. Consequently, Moore's Law will taper off, which Moore himself predicted would happen after around 2020. This, however, may not spell the end of Moore's Law. Rather, we'll see Moore's Law enter into a new dimension. In a 2010 White Paper, ITRS's Arden et al. postulated:
More MooreMoore's Law (aka "More Moore") has been pushing technology to shrinking the size of physical components while simultaneously improving density and performance. The proposed "More than Moore" (MtM) methodology will continue to fuel the ITRS's roadmapping efforts. Meanwhile, Intel itself has developed new technology, such as 3D CPU transistors or GAAFET, which is poised to 10x processing performance and efficiency. These advances alone could lead to new CPUs that will uphold Moore's Law well beyond 2025. More Than Moore
More than Moore (MtM) relies on alternative technologies, such as system in package, solid-state lighting, integrated radio frequency functions, or organic technology. It complements More Moore and may extend the validity of a renewed Moore's Law for another decade and beyond. Fun Fact: Due to its continued success, Moore himself once described his law as a violation of Murphy's Law: "Everything gets better and better." The Flip Side of Moore's LawOn the one hand, Moore's Law has fueled technological advancement. An entire industry was driven to keep up with Moore's projection. As a result, many of Moore's other predictions about technology, e.g. home computers or personal portable communications equipment, all driven by tiny CPUs, have also come true. Today, all of us enjoy and benefit from this technology, we have become used to fast-paced developments, and are anticipating future innovations. So you, a representative of the customer side, are said to keep expecting and demanding technological advancements. Do you? On one of the flip-sides of Moore's Law, however, we have The Great Moore's Law Compensator (TGMLC), also known as software bloat or Wirth's Law, and several derivatives. TGMLC is based on the adage coined by Swiss computer scientist Niklaus Wirth, who in 1995 quoted Martin Reiser in his paper A Plea for Lean Software:
So in essence, end users don't necessarily benefit from developments on the hardware side, as software developers feel compelled or liberated to create products that are equally more complex and resource hungry. A popular example is Microsoft Office. In 2008, Randall C. Kennedy, a former Intel employee, demonstrated TGMLC using a standard computer of the year 2000 running Office 2000 and a standard computer of the year 2007 running Office 2007. When both versions of Office ran the same task, Office 2007 did so at half the speed of Office 2000. So, you're not crazy when your new computer seems slower than your old one after very little time. Chances are, you merely updated your software. Moore's Law Remains RelevantMore importantly than predicting the future, Moore's Law has been a guiding principle, driving integrated circuit development for more than half a century. Despite repeatedly facing seemingly unsurmountable challenges, an entire industry kept collaborating to produce ever-new innovations. As such, Moore's Law proves that goals can shape our future. Moore's Law will continue to drive innovation, but possibly in ways we can't yet fathom today. Currently, the IRDS considers new semiconductor materials, artificial intelligence, and price developments of rare earth metals its main drivers of future innovations. Does Moore's Law still apply?Nevertheless, technologists have internalized Moore's Law and grown accustomed to believing computer speed doubles every 18 months as Moore observed over 50 years ago and, until recently, that was true. However, Moore's Law is becoming obsolete.
What are the three 3 things that make Moore's Law?Advancements in digital electronics, such as the reduction in quality-adjusted microprocessor prices, the increase in memory capacity (RAM and flash), the improvement of sensors, and even the number and size of pixels in digital cameras, are strongly linked to Moore's law.
What is an example of Moore's Law?For example, in 1993, the Intel Pentium processor had 3.1M transistors. Two years later, the new version of the same processor had 5.5M transistors. By 2003, the number of transistors had jumped to 55M. For the past five decades, Moore's Law has accurately predicted developments in computer technology.
What is Moore's Law based on?Moore's law is based on empirical observations made by Moore. The doubling every year of the number of transistors on a microchip was extrapolated from observed data. Over time, the details of Moore's law were amended to better reflect actual growth of transistor density.
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